Who Really Started the Ukraine War? NATO’s Role and the Road to Conflict

Introduction: The Danger of a One-Sided Narrative

War is never as simple as “good vs. evil.” Yet, when discussing the Ukraine war, the dominant narrative in the West is that Russia unilaterally invaded Ukraine in an act of aggression. While Russia’s invasion in 2022 was undeniably an act of war, the roots of the conflict go much deeper. The reality is that NATO’s expansion, Western interference in Ukraine, and broken agreements played a major role in provoking this war. To understand why Russia acted, we must look beyond the headlines and analyze the decades of geopolitical maneuvering that led to this moment.

NATO Expansion: A Promise Broken

In the early 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States and its NATO allies assured Russia that NATO would not expand “one inch” eastward beyond Germany. This was a key verbal promise made to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev during negotiations over German reunification. In exchange, the USSR allowed Germany to reunite under NATO’s security framework.

However, by the late 1990s, the U.S. and NATO broke that promise. In 1999, NATO expanded into Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. By 2004, it had absorbed the Baltic states—Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, directly on Russia’s border. NATO’s expansion didn’t stop there; over the years, it incorporated multiple former Soviet-aligned nations, despite repeated Russian protests.

To Moscow, NATO’s continuous expansion wasn’t just a defensive alliance growing—it was a direct security threat. If NATO’s presence extended to Ukraine, it would put U.S. and Western military infrastructure right on Russia’s doorstep.

The 2014 Coup: Western Interference in Ukraine

While NATO’s expansion set the stage, the true breaking point came in 2014, when Ukraine underwent a Western-backed regime change. That year, pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown in what many consider a U.S.-orchestrated coup. The U.S. government openly supported anti-Yanukovych protests in Kyiv, known as the Maidan Revolution, providing funds and political backing to opposition groups.

The intercepted phone call between U.S. diplomat Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt revealed how deeply the U.S. was involved in choosing Ukraine’s next leader. Nuland even handpicked Ukraine’s new prime minister, saying, “Yats is the guy,” referring to Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who soon took office.

To Russia, this was clear: the West had toppled a democratically elected, Russia-friendly leader and installed a pro-Western government in Ukraine. This shift in power immediately led to discussions about Ukraine joining NATO, a red line for Moscow.

The Donbas Conflict: A War Before the War

After the 2014 coup, Ukraine’s new Western-backed government pursued aggressive nationalist policies, marginalizing Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east. This led to a violent uprising in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, known as the Donbas.

Pro-Russian separatists in these regions declared independence, leading to a bloody civil war between them and the Ukrainian military. Over 14,000 people died in this conflict from 2014 to 2022, long before Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The Minsk Agreements, negotiated by Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine, were meant to bring peace by granting Donbas special autonomy. However, Ukraine, under Western pressure, refused to fully implement them, prolonging the violence.

NATO’s Military Buildup in Ukraine

Even before 2022, NATO had been arming, training, and integrating Ukraine into its military framework, despite Ukraine not being a formal member. The U.S. and its allies poured billions of dollars in military aid into Ukraine, sending weapons, advisors, and intelligence support.

By 2021, NATO had held joint military exercises with Ukraine, trained its forces, and begun discussions about fast-tracking its NATO membership. From Russia’s perspective, NATO was militarizing Ukraine right on its border, creating an existential threat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly warned that NATO expansion into Ukraine was a red line. His warnings were ignored.

Why Russia Finally Acted in 2022

By early 2022, Ukraine had massively increased its military operations in Donbas, intensifying shelling against separatist-held areas. Russia saw this as the final push toward an all-out offensive that could wipe out the pro-Russian forces in Donbas.

On February 21, 2022, Putin recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states and deployed Russian forces under the claim of defending them. Three days later, on February 24, Russia launched a full-scale military operation in Ukraine.

While the invasion was a violation of international law, it didn’t happen in a vacuum. It was the result of decades of NATO expansion, Western-backed coups, military buildups, and broken promises that led Russia to believe it had no other choice but to act.

Who Really Started the Ukraine War?

If we define “starting a war” as who fired the first shot, then yes—Russia started the war in 2022. But if we define it as who created the conditions for war, then NATO’s expansion, Western interference in Ukraine, and broken agreements played a significant role in provoking this conflict.

Imagine if Russia orchestrated a coup in Mexico, installed a pro-Russian government, armed its military, and then talked about Mexico joining a military alliance against the U.S. Would America sit back and do nothing? Of course not. This is how Russia viewed Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine isn’t just about Russia’s aggression—it’s about NATO’s aggressive expansion, the U.S. breaking agreements, and a refusal to acknowledge Russia’s security concerns.

Conclusion: Understanding Both Sides

This isn’t about justifying Russia’s invasion. War is tragic, and innocent Ukrainians have suffered the most. But if we want peace, we need to understand how this war really started. Blaming only Russia ignores the broader context: NATO’s expansion, Western-backed regime change, and years of ignoring Russian security concerns helped create this war.

If we want a real path to peace, we need to move beyond black-and-white thinking and acknowledge both sides’ roles in this conflict. Only then can we have an honest conversation about how to end this war.